Inside Ukraine's energy war: Is the strategy against Putin working?

Key Points:

• Ukraine's intensified strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure have forced Russia to restrict diesel exports, seek fuel imports, and face shortages across the country, marking a rare direct impact of the war on ordinary Russians.
• Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted major Russian refineries deep inside Russian territory, including the Omsk and Saratov facilities, causing significant production disruptions and compelling Moscow to halt diesel exports temporarily.
• U.S. intelligence support has been crucial in enabling Ukraine to penetrate Russian air defenses and conduct long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, increasing pressure on Russia's economy and military capabilities.
• Despite the growing fuel crisis and internal pressures, President Putin is likely to prioritize military fuel supplies, while civilian shortages could undermine his political control ahead of the September State Duma elections.
• While Ukraine's campaign disrupts Russia's energy sector and challenges Putin's regime, Russia continues to earn substantial revenue from global energy exports, complicating Kyiv's efforts to fully cripple Moscow's war economy.