Iran appears to be preparing a major test of America’s blockade

Key Points:

• Just before the US reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports, Iran appeared to prepare blockade-busting vessels in the Persian Gulf, with 23 ships identified as “dark vessels” using fraudulent flags and turned-off transponders to evade detection.
• Iran has a history of circumventing US sanctions through complex shadow fleets and cargo swaps, primarily exporting oil to China while masking the origin of shipments via indirect routes such as through Iraq’s Basrah Oil Terminal.
• Despite the ceasefire and prior desanctioning, Iran continued exporting significant crude volumes using these shadow fleets, with about 50 million barrels exported in June and some tankers currently waiting in the Indian Ocean for buyers.
• The initial US blockade from mid-April to mid-June limited but did not stop Iranian oil exports, which constitute about half of Iran’s revenue, with China importing roughly 80% of Iran’s oil despite sanctions.
• The blockade contributed to soaring inflation in Iran, with overall inflation averaging 50% annually and food inflation exceeding 100%, severely impacting the economy where 90% of trade passes through the Persian Gulf.