Iran deal, or trap? Rift in Trump team over Lebanon

Key Points:

• Significant disagreements exist within the US administration between the Vance group handling Iran negotiations and the State Department under Secretary Marco Rubio regarding Lebanon, with the State Department opposing the creation of a new "cell" involving Qatar, Pakistan, and the US to address the Lebanon conflict.
• Hezbollah and Iran oppose direct talks with Israel, as Lebanon's official stance demands Hezbollah's disarmament and government control over armed forces, while Qatar secured agreement to establish the cell aimed at ceasefire implementation and Israeli withdrawal per the Iran-US memorandum.
• Intelligence indicates Tehran's Revolutionary Guards have ordered escalations against Israel despite the ceasefire agreement, suggesting a deliberate Iranian strategy to provoke conflict and complicate US-Israel relations, with some US officials seemingly unaware of this ploy.
• Despite Iranian claims of closing the Strait of Hormuz, tanker data shows record-high Iranian oil exports generating billions for the Revolutionary Guards, who control most oil revenues and use funds to bolster military capabilities and regional proxies, undermining war achievements except in the nuclear sphere.
• The US Treasury's temporary lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports faced internal opposition due to concerns over empowering Iran financially, while Iran's economy shows superficial recovery amid high unemployment and poverty, with much state revenue diverted to the Revolutionary Guards rather than civilian government.