Iran Update Special Report, May 9, 2026

Key Points:

• Russia is aiding Iran in rebuilding its military capabilities during the ceasefire by sending drone components via the Caspian Sea, supporting Iran's efforts to restore missile and drone systems potentially for future conflict with the US and Israel.
• Both Russia and China provided satellite imagery and other support to Iran during the war, with the US sanctioning several Chinese companies for supplying Iran with intelligence used in attacks on US forces.
• The US continues to target Chinese entities for aiding Iran's drone and missile programs, while Iran remains non-committal to US proposals for ending the conflict, using negotiation delays to rebuild military strength.
• In Iraq, a committee backed by the Shia Coordination Framework is finalizing plans to disarm Iranian-backed militias, but many militias reject disarmament, complicating US and Iraqi government efforts amid escalating US financial pressure on Iraq.
• Iran reportedly pressures its Iraqi allies to reduce militia activity to avoid US sanctions on Iraq, while also seeking to maintain influence by embedding loyal actors within Iraqi institutions and potentially forming new militias under tighter Iranian control.