Iran-US war: Four scenarios for what’s next as talks stumble

Key Points:

• Vice President JD Vance is set to lead U.S. negotiators in Islamabad on Tuesday for talks with Iran aimed at ending the war, though Iran has not confirmed its participation in this round.
• The fragile two-week ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7, is due to expire Wednesday with no clarity on extension amid rising tensions and recent military confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran has rejected negotiations under threats, accusing the U.S. of overly demanding terms and pursuing ulterior motives, while Trump has warned of severe military action if Iran does not accept a U.S. deal.
• Four potential scenarios include successful talks leading to a temporary deal, talks without breakthrough but ceasefire extension, no talks with ceasefire extension, or talks failing and the ceasefire expiring, which could escalate conflict rapidly.
• Analysts emphasize the need for compromises on both sides to achieve progress, but warn that without a diplomatic framework, any ceasefire extension would be fragile and the risk of miscalculation remains high.