Is Belarus about to enter the Russian war?

Key Points:

• Belarus is participating in Russian-led nuclear warfare exercises, raising concerns about a potential northern front in the Ukraine conflict, as President Zelensky has warned about Belarus possibly joining the war alongside Russia.
• Belarus has historically supported Russia's military operations against Ukraine, including serving as a launch point for Russian attacks during the 2022 invasion and facilitating drone and missile strikes via its airspace.
• Despite domestic unpopularity and military weaknesses, Belarusian President Lukashenko may face Kremlin pressure to enter the war, which could force Ukraine to divert troops to defend against northern or western invasions, weakening its front-line defenses.
• Western partners should enhance intelligence sharing on Belarus, conduct NATO military exercises near Belarusian borders to deter aggression, and strengthen alternative supply routes through Romania to prepare for potential disruptions from the north.
• While a Belarusian invasion may seem unlikely, the evolving conflict dynamics and Russia’s desperation mean Ukraine and its allies must remain vigilant and ready for unexpected developments on the northern border.