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Is Russia’s fuel crisis a temporary squeeze or the collapse of an industry? Two leading economists debated the question, unable to agree on how much refining capacity is left. - Meduza
Meduza • • world
Key Points:
- Sergey Vakulenko estimates Russia’s oil refining output has only fallen by 25–28% despite Ukrainian strikes, arguing that damaged refinery units are mostly replaceable and fuel shortages are overstated.
- Vyacheslav Shiryaev counters that 65–70% of Russia’s refining capacity is offline, basing his claims on extensive tracking of refinery shutdowns and criticizing optimistic assessments for prolonging the war.
- Both experts agree that while drone attacks have caused significant damage, Russia’s refining industry has not yet been irreparably harmed, though continued strikes could eventually cripple production.
- Shiryaev highlights severe fuel shortages at gas stations, predicting widespread transportation disruptions if attacks persist, while Vakulenko emphasizes the challenges in fully defending refineries against cheap, numerous drones.
- The debate concludes with agreement that Ukraine’s campaign has the potential to drastically reduce Russia’s gasoline production, with Shiryaev warning of a possible price surge to 200 rubles per liter depending on Ukraine’s strategic decisions.
