Is Trump testing Iran’s power core through Ghalibaf?

Key Points:

• Ebrahim Zolghadr, a longtime hardliner and former IRGC deputy commander with deep revolutionary and military ties, has been appointed chief of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council following the killing of Ali Larijani, signaling continued consolidation of power by hardline military figures.
• Zolghadr’s career reflects the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary security networks and the IRGC’s expanded role as a political and economic power center, with experience in internal repression, regional asymmetrical warfare strategy, and close connections to elite units like the Quds Force.
• Reports of potential secret talks between Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and the Trump administration have been strongly denied by Iranian officials and IRGC-linked media, which describe such claims as psychological operations aimed at sowing division and discrediting political figures.
• Iran is experiencing a compressed political crisis marked by economic decline, mass protests, a brutal crackdown, and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, followed by a succession that has failed to restore clear authority, leading to a narrowing of power to the coercive core of the IRGC amid signs of internal strain.
• Historical patterns suggest that the Islamic Republic’s survival depends on its ability to maintain authority, loyalty, and functioning institutions; current fractures in command and legitimacy raise questions about the regime’s stability and indicate it may be approaching a critical tipping point.