James Talarico Is Winning Over Greg Abbott Supporters in Texas

Key Points:

• Recent polls indicate some Texas voters plan to split their ballots, supporting Republican Governor Greg Abbott for a fourth term while backing Democrat James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton.
• Talarico is outperforming Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa against Abbott, with Paxton lagging behind Abbott’s numbers among Republicans, white college-educated women, and suburban voters.
• Paxton faces significant favorability challenges, with a net negative rating much worse than Abbott’s, partly due to his 2023 impeachment and ongoing political controversies, weakening his support even within his party.
• Some Republicans may vote for Abbott but skip the Senate race or abstain from supporting Paxton, leading to a potential undervote that concerns Republican strategists, though many still expect Paxton to win.
• Polls show Texas is experiencing its most competitive election cycle in years, with small margins separating candidates and the possibility of a closer-than-expected Senate race in the November 3 midterms.