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James Talarico's Chance of Beating Ken Paxton Flips in New Poll
Newsweek • • nation
Key Points:
- Democrat James Talarico currently leads Republican Ken Paxton by 50% to 45% in a recent SoCal Strategies poll of likely Texas voters, marking a shift from June when Paxton was ahead.
- Talarico has gained significant support among Hispanic voters, independents, and younger voters aged 18 to 29, while Paxton maintains advantages with white voters and older age groups.
- The poll indicates Republicans are less decided than Democrats, with Paxton needing to secure nearly all undecided Republican voters and peel back some who currently support Talarico to win.
- Texas remains a Republican stronghold historically, but demographic changes have made recent elections more competitive, with polls and prediction markets showing the Senate race as a toss-up.
- President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton, while polling data from multiple sources consistently show a tight race, reflecting the high stakes and uncertainty leading into the 2026 election.
