Jamie Dimon's bearish treasuries bond call has been hot trade in 2026

Key Points:

• Investors concerned about a potential stock market downturn are increasingly allocating to U.S. short-term treasuries as a "flight to safety," with the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) seeing record inflows of $47.5 billion this year.
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon advised against buying long-dated treasuries, suggesting the 10-year bond yield should be around 4% to 4.5%, reflecting limited upside for these bonds despite inflation potentially falling closer to the Fed's 2% target.
• The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.6% amid concerns over possible Fed rate hikes and uncertain inflation outlooks, putting downward pressure on long-term bond prices.
• Short-term treasury ETFs like SGOV have become some of the most popular fixed-income investments, ranking among the top ETFs for inflows over the past year, driven by investor caution in both equity and bond markets.
• This trend continued through June and July, with SGOV maintaining a top-five position in ETF inflows, reflecting sustained demand for short-duration government debt amid market uncertainty.