Japan, Australia and a New Regional Order

Key Points:

• Australia and Japan have strengthened their defense ties with a deal for Australia to order 11 frigates from Japan, reflecting their response to evolving U.S. policies in the Eastern Hemisphere and increased defense budgets in both countries.
• The U.S. aims to reduce its military involvement in the Eastern Hemisphere as part of its National Security Strategy, focusing more on the Western Hemisphere, which prompts allies like Japan and Australia to bolster their own military capabilities, especially naval power.
• The first island chain, including Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Australia, remains a strategic geographic focus, with Taiwan as a key point of contention in U.S.-China negotiations; recent political developments in Taiwan suggest potential for increased U.S.-China accommodation.
• Japan and Australia’s military cooperation is seen as a move to fill security gaps left by potential U.S. disengagement, with Japan positioned to limit China’s Pacific access near South Korea and Australia capable of controlling the Strait of Malacca.
• The emerging alliance between Japan and Australia signals a shifting Pacific geopolitical order likely influenced by a potential U.S.-China detente, with future discussions expected to address the roles of the Philippines and South Korea.