Japan went from a rice shortage to a rice surplus in two years, due to drought, tourism and the U.S.

Key Points:

• Japan experienced a significant rice shortage in 2024 due to heat and drought damaging crops and increased demand from tourism and panic buying, causing prices to more than double from ¥2,000 to ¥4,300 per five-kilogram bag.
• In response to high prices, farmers rapidly increased production, leading to a surplus by mid-2026 with private stocks rising to 2.43 million tons, and prices falling back toward pre-shortage levels.
• The rice distribution system in Japan is opaque, complicating government response and market regulation, while Japan relies almost entirely on domestic rice production with minimal exports.
• Aging rice farmers and small farm sizes pose challenges for maintaining production, with concerns about land abandonment in mountainous areas; experts suggest implementing a price loss coverage program to stabilize the market.
• Climate change continues to impact rice yields with rising temperatures and droughts, prompting a gradual shift toward heat-tolerant rice varieties, though adoption remains below 20%.