Ken Paxton’s Chances of Beating John Cornyn Surge Days Before Election

Key Points:

• Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's chances of winning the Republican Senate nomination have surged following President Trump's endorsement, dramatically increasing his odds in prediction markets ahead of Tuesday's run-off against incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
• Paxton, known for his strong conservative stance and support for Trump's 2020 election challenges, has faced legal and ethical controversies, including a 2023 impeachment, which have made establishment Republicans wary of his candidacy.
• Senator Cornyn and other GOP leaders warn that Paxton could jeopardize the seat in the general election against Democrat James Talarico, who is seen as a strong challenger capable of flipping the historically Republican Texas Senate seat.
• Despite Cornyn's initial lead and endorsements from key Republicans, recent polling and market data show momentum shifting toward Paxton, who now holds a significant advantage in the run-off.
• Prediction markets favor Republicans to retain the seat in November, with Paxton having a 60 percent chance against Talarico, though Cornyn is viewed as the stronger general election candidate if he wins the primary.