Kharg Island: How risky would a US assault on the tiny coral outcrop be?

Key Points:

• Despite President Trump’s declaration that the “war has been won” with Iran, the US is deploying amphibious warships, landing craft, and thousands of Marines to the region, fueling speculation about a potential operation to capture Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub.
• Kharg Island is strategically vital for Iran’s economy, handling around 90% of its crude oil exports, but experts question whether seizing it would provide the US sufficient leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid global energy concerns.
• A US ground assault on Kharg Island would face significant risks, including Iranian drones, missiles, mines, and the challenge of securing air and sea superiority, while also raising concerns about civilian safety and the strategic value of the operation.
• Iran has reportedly fortified Kharg Island with additional military personnel, air defenses, and mines in anticipation of a possible US attack, and Iranian leaders have issued stern warnings against any attempt to occupy their territory.
• Regional Gulf allies are cautioning the US against a prolonged conflict involving ground troops on Kharg Island, fearing high casualties and Iranian retaliation that could destabilize the broader region.