Latvian PM faces bittersweet victory in election backdropped by Russia

Key Points:

• Latvia’s Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs faces his first election test amid concerns that his coalition partners, New Unity and the Union of Greens and Farmers, may fail to cross the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary seats, potentially complicating government formation.
• If Kulbergs’ centrist allies do not enter parliament, he might be forced to negotiate with right-wing politician Ainārs Šlesers, who supports expanding trade with Russia, although Kulbergs has dismissed this possibility due to distrust of Šlesers’ associates.
• The election campaign was influenced by geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, including a recent EU sanctions dispute where Latvia opposed delisting Russian billionaires but ultimately lost the battle partially, securing a three-year sanctions regime.
• Despite challenges, Kulbergs’ right-wing United List party leads in polls with about 20%, and his short tenure as prime minister gives him visibility and influence, positioning him advantageously compared to his coalition partners struggling in the polls.
• Political analyst Una Bergmane notes that recent foreign policy stances, especially Latvia’s firm position on sanctions and cooperation with EU partners, could bolster Kulbergs and New Unity, particularly through the positive recognition of Foreign Minister Baiba Braže.