Leading Prediction Firms Share a Commonality: Donald Trump Jr.
The New York Times • • business
Key Points:
- Online prediction markets are seeing significant interest in bets related to President Trump's potential actions and political events, including his possible takeover of Greenland and Federal Reserve nominations.
- Donald Trump Jr. is involved in the prediction market industry as an investor and adviser to major platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, and also serves as a director of the Trump family’s social media company launching Truth Predict.
- His multiple roles raise ethical concerns, given the federal regulation of prediction markets and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s softened enforcement stance, which may be influenced by his connection to the president.
- Ethics experts highlight that Donald Trump Jr.’s close ties to the president and his inner circle could lead to suspicions of insider influence on market outcomes, even without direct evidence of information
