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Little relief expected for gas prices ahead of Election Day
CNBC • • business
Key Points:
- Affordability is a key concern for voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with gas prices expected to remain high through Election Day.
- Prediction market Kalshi estimates an 87% chance that the national average gas price will stay above $4 per gallon on November 3, though only a 42% chance it will exceed $4.25.
- Gas prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon in May due to geopolitical tensions but fell to $3.79 in July before rising again; diesel prices hit record highs in September and are predicted to stay above $6 per gallon with 68% probability.
- Elevated diesel prices particularly affect agriculture-heavy states like Iowa and Kansas, as well as Alaska, all of which have competitive Senate races this November.
- Rising fuel costs have coincided with improved Democratic odds of winning Senate control, with Kalshi traders giving Democrats a 63% chance of flipping the chamber.
