Losing in Every Dimension

Key Points:

• As Russia enters the fifth year of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, evidence suggests that its war effort is failing across all strategic dimensions: military, cognitive, moral, industrial, and economic, with the only current advantage being the stance of the American president.
• Militarily, Russia's attritional strategy—trading manpower and equipment for territory—is faltering, with recent offensives yielding minimal territorial gains and rising casualties; since early 2026, Russian troop losses have exceeded recruitment for the first time.
• In 2026, Russia suffered a record 35,000 casualties in March alone, and the cost per square mile of territory gained has drastically increased, indicating diminishing returns on Russian military operations.
• Despite improvements in command, control, and industrial support since the war's start, Russia has failed to translate these gains into decisive battlefield successes, raising doubts about its ability to win the conflict.
• This comprehensive strategic failure calls for a reassessment of Western narratives on Russia’s position and underscores the need for continued and enhanced support to Ukraine to sustain its sovereignty and deter future aggression.