Magyar’s EU reset heads for Brussels reality check

Key Points:

• The European Commission is cautiously negotiating with Hungary's new prime minister Péter Magyar to unlock billions of euros in frozen EU funds linked to rule-of-law concerns during Viktor Orbán’s tenure, with a meeting scheduled between Magyar and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
• Despite Magyar's optimistic public statements about a near agreement, EU officials warn that complex issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding judicial reforms, anti-corruption measures, and public procurement safeguards.
• The European Court of Justice is expected to rule soon on the legality of the Commission’s 2023 decision to release €10 billion to Hungary, with the court’s advocate general having sided with the European Parliament’s challenge citing ongoing democratic concerns.
• Hungary must submit a revised plan and complete key reforms by August 31 to access €10.4 billion in post-pandemic recovery funds, but entrenched Orbán loyalists in key judicial and constitutional positions could obstruct necessary changes, risking a constitutional crisis.
• The Commission is wary due to Poland’s example, where funds were unfrozen after a government change but reforms later stalled, highlighting the risk of releasing money based on promises rather than completed reforms.