March 2026 Newsletter: A Flywheel of Chaos
Lyn Alden - Investment Strategy • • business
Key Points:
- The Federal Reserve has begun a "gradual print" monetary policy in 2026, expanding its balance sheet modestly by $220 to $375 billion, which is small compared to previous quantitative easing rounds; a "big print" would require $2+ trillion in balance sheet expansion.
- Rising recession risks and the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and spiking energy prices, present potential catalysts that could push Fed money printing beyond the gradual baseline.
- The prolonged conflict risks causing sustained high energy prices, supply chain disruptions, rising US Treasury yields, and stagflation, which would complicate Fed policy decisions and could trigger a significant increase in monetary stimulus.
- Despite elevated uncertainty due to
