Markets Still Weeks Away From 'Peak Panic' From Iran War, Research Firm Says
businessinsider.com • • business
Key Points:
- Financial markets have experienced high volatility since the Iran war began in late February, with Alpine Macro predicting that "peak panic" in the markets has yet to occur, likely within the next two weeks.
- Despite President Trump's statements about Iran seeking a deal, Alpine's chief geopolitical strategist Dan Alamariu expects further escalation in the Middle East before any de-escalation happens.
- Investors are advised to go long on energy investments through the peak panic, as oil prices are expected to rise further due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route.
- Beaten-down stocks, particularly in Asian, GCC, and European markets, present buying opportunities once panic subsides, while the resilient US market may offer fewer such chances.
- Increasing exposure to longer-duration US Treasurys is recommended, especially if the 10-year bond yield surpasses 4.5%, as government debt can provide recession protection even if it is not a direct hedge against geopolitical risk.
