Marvell’s $12.2 Billion Google Deal Changes the Bull Case for MRVL Stock

Key Points:

• Marvell Technology granted Alphabet a warrant to purchase nearly 59 million shares at $206.58 each, potentially making Google a top shareholder with a $12.18 billion stake tied to AI and TPU-related products.
• Marvell’s stock has risen significantly year-to-date, supported by strong Q1 fiscal 2027 results including 27.57% revenue growth and a dominant 76% revenue share from Data Center products, with a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $288.12 implying 21.43% upside.
• Management projects fiscal 2027 revenue near $11.5 billion and $16.5 billion in 2028, with custom product revenue expected to double in 2028 and exceed $10 billion in 2029, bolstered by partnerships with NVIDIA and growth in optics and switching.
• Risks include high customer concentration with hyperscalers controlling the roadmap, a recent 80.61% drop in GAAP net income due to charges, and increased stock-based compensation, while operating cash flow hit a record $638.8 million.
• Compared to peers Broadcom and NVIDIA, Marvell’s forward P/E of 58 is higher but justified by the strategic Google warrant; price targets through 2030 range from $251 to $408, contingent on execution and Google’s warrant exercise.