Mission accomplished? Markets eagerly waiting on US president Trump's address later

Key Points:

• US President Trump is set to deliver a national address with "important updates" on Iran, signaling a possible declaration of "mission accomplished" regarding preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, though some cleanup work may continue for weeks.
• Markets have reacted optimistically to the prospect of progress, with equities rising, oil prices stabilizing around $100 per barrel, and 10-year Treasury yields falling to 4.28%.
• Despite potential market relief, the situation remains complex due to Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, which continues to influence energy prices and economic stability.
• Unlike previous US-China trade tensions where agreements were more symbolic, Iran's strategic position means that any lasting resolution depends on actual changes in control and passage through the strait, which may not happen quickly.
• Markets may be underestimating the duration of ongoing tensions, as a formal US declaration of victory will not significantly impact the status quo unless it is accompanied by a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and easing of restrictions.