More Than 113,000 Russians Cross Into Georgia in One Week Amid Mobilization Rumors

Key Points:

• Over 113,000 Russians crossed into Georgia through the Verkhny Lars checkpoint in one week following rumors of a new military draft, with more than 20,000 crossing on August 20 alone, significantly exceeding previous years' levels.
• Despite increased recruitment efforts and expanded powers of the Russian National Guard, Russia has struggled to consistently recruit more than 30,000 contract soldiers monthly in 2026, leading to a greater focus on mobilizing reservists under 55 years old.
• Ukrainian intelligence reports suggest Russia plans to mobilize an additional 600,000 people across 2026 and 2027 to support its invasion of Ukraine, with 300,000 recruits expected this year and another 300,000 next year.
• Armenia is emerging as a refuge for Russians avoiding mobilization, with Armenian officials welcoming those fleeing conscription and promising no hindrance to those seeking to avoid deployment to Ukraine.
• A July 2026 Russian poll showed 66% of citizens anticipate difficult times ahead, reflecting increased public anxiety driven by economic decline, infrastructure attacks, and ongoing conflict in Ukraine, reaching levels not seen since the early 1990s.