Musk Wants a Self-Growing Moon City in 10 Years. Here’s When the Water Runs Out

Key Points:

• New research indicates that the Moon’s water reserves, estimated at around 600 million metric tons, may be insufficient to support a large-scale, long-term human settlement, such as Elon Musk’s proposed “self-growing city” for over one million people.
• The study found that a lunar city with a population of one million would deplete the Moon’s water supply in just over two years without recycling, and in about a century even with a highly efficient recycling system similar to that on the International Space Station.
• Water ice is believed to be trapped in permanently shadowed craters near the Moon’s poles, but current estimates of these reserves are uncertain and likely overstate the available quantity by up to 20 to 30 times.
• While a small lunar habitat housing 1,000 to 10,000 people could potentially sustain itself for several centuries using existing water supplies, a larger city would require significant improvements in water recycling, reduced consumption, importing water from asteroids, or discovering new water sources.
• The study emphasizes that securing adequate water resources is a critical first step before ambitious plans for permanent lunar settlements can become feasible.