'Nations need to prepare now': Key Atlantic ocean current is much closer to collapse than scientists thought

Key Points:

• A new study finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current regulating climate across Europe, Africa, and America, is projected to weaken by 43% to 59% by 2100, a 60% stronger decline than previous models predicted.
• The study, published in Science Advances, incorporates sea surface temperature and salinity data using advanced statistical methods, revealing that the AMOC may be closer to a critical tipping point leading to irreversible climate impacts.
• An AMOC collapse would cause severe climate disruptions, including plummeting temperatures in northern Europe, extreme droughts in southern Europe, rising sea levels in North America, and significant reductions in global agricultural productivity.
• While this research suggests a substantial AMOC weakening, experts caution that model projections vary widely due to differences in variables and methodologies, and there remains uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the slowdown.
• Scientists emphasize the importance of preparing for ongoing AMOC variability and slowdown impacts, as environmental changes linked to the AMOC are already affecting global socioeconomic conditions.