Netanyahu turns his focus to his divided base with eyes on reelection

Key Points:

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a critical challenge ahead of the Oct. 27 election as multiple small pro-Netanyahu parties risk splitting his voter base and weakening his chances for reelection.
• The election is seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s long tenure and his handling of recent crises, including the Hamas attacks and ongoing regional conflicts, with a victory marking a comeback and a loss likely ending his political dominance.
• Israel’s parliamentary system requires coalition-building, and Netanyahu currently leads a coalition of religious and ultranationalist parties, but divisions within his hard-line base and competing small parties complicate his path to securing a majority.
• Failure of smaller allied parties to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold could result in lost votes and jeopardize Netanyahu’s reelection, prompting him to urge these parties to unite into larger blocs before the Sept. 8 deadline.
• Netanyahu has intensified his appeals, warning that only he can defeat Hamas and prevent a Palestinian state, portraying his opponents as a dangerous left-wing threat and emphasizing that disunity would lead to defeat.