New Siena poll has Gendebien leading Constantino in NY-21

Key Points:

• A Siena Research Institute poll shows Democrat Blake Gendebien leading Republican Anthony Constantino by 4 points in New York’s 21st Congressional District, suggesting a potential Democratic flip in a traditionally GOP stronghold.
• The poll, conducted among 496 likely voters, found Gendebien favored by 46% and Constantino by 42%, with independents and Democrats largely supporting Gendebien, while Republicans favored Constantino.
• Despite Republican strength in other races and favorable views of GOP figures like Elise Stefanik, Constantino faces a significant unfavorable rating (52%) and a backlash linked to his strong support for Donald Trump, who is also viewed unfavorably by a majority in the district.
• Gendebien outperforms Constantino on key issues such as affordability, healthcare, and Canada relations, while Constantino is seen as less connected to average voters and lacking experience, according to poll respondents.
• The campaign has been contentious, with Constantino accusing Gendebien of illegal dumping on his farm and Gendebien declining debate invitations, leading to a solo appearance by Constantino in a televised event where he focused on the dumping allegations.