Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
AP News • • business
Key Points:
- A group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire occurring on April 7, resulting in substantial profits totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars.
- These bets were placed hours before President Trump announced the ceasefire, despite his earlier aggressive rhetoric and warnings, suggesting possible insider information or strategic betting based on expectations of Trump backing down.
- Analysis of blockchain data revealed at least 50 new accounts making large "Yes" bets prior to the ceasefire announcement, with some individual wallets earning profits exceeding $100,000.
- Polymarket has labeled the ceasefire contract as "disputed" due to ongoing regional tensions, and the platform has not commented on the suspicious betting patterns, which resemble previous instances of well-timed wagers on geopolitical events.
- The incident has reignited concerns about insider trading in prediction markets, prompting calls from lawmakers and industry experts for regulatory measures to prevent unfair advantages and ensure market integrity.
