NFL divisional round projected scores: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game
The New York Times • • sports
Key Points:
- The divisional round of the NFL playoffs features three home teams favored, with the Rams as the only road favorite.
- An NFL Projection Model has been developed using play-by-play data to estimate expected points per game for offense and defense, adjusted for opponent strength and garbage time.
- The model generates expected spreads and totals for each game, which closely align with current betting lines on BetMGM.
- This weekend’s spreads and totals show strong agreement between the model and betting odds, with differences of less than half a point for spreads and within one point for totals.
 { path { fill: %23EEEFE9 } })