No One Knows How to End the War with Iran

Key Points:

• The six-month conflict between the United States and Iran shows no clear path to victory for either side, with both holding unrealistic expectations about ending the war, leading to continued suffering and economic devastation in Iran and significant U.S. military and financial costs.
• Iran is shifting from defensive deterrence to more offensive coercion, utilizing asymmetric operations, including potential terror attacks outside the region, cyber warfare, and sabotage, while maintaining missile and drone capabilities despite losses inflicted by U.S. and allied forces.
• The U.S. military faces challenges in countering Iran’s missile and drone attacks due to depleted interceptors and vulnerabilities of regional bases, leading to a cautious approach without major new military escalations since the April ceasefire.
• Diplomatic efforts have stalled amid deep mutual distrust, with Iran aiming to make the conflict costly enough to deter future U.S. and Israeli attacks, while the U.S. relies on intensified sanctions—dubbed “Economic D-Day”—to pressure Tehran, though past sanctions have had limited success in forcing regime change.
• Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical strategic focus, with the U.S. trying to restore safe maritime trade, but Iran prioritizes survival and deterrence over global economic impacts, prepared to endure high costs to prevent further U.S. or Israeli aggression.