NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook predicts 'below-average' season: What you need to know
Yahoo • • nation
Key Points:
- NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with an estimated 8 to 14 named storms, including 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, compared to the average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
- There is a 55% chance of a below-normal Atlantic season, a 35% chance of near-normal, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season, with the peak hurricane activity expected from mid-August to mid-October.
- The forecast is influenced by a likely El Niño event, which NOAA says has an 82% chance of developing by July and typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing Pacific hurricane activity.
- NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane activity in the Pacific basin for 2026, with 15 to 22 named storms expected in the eastern Pacific and 5 to 13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.
- Despite the below-average forecast for the Atlantic, NOAA emphasizes that a single major hurricane can still cause significant impacts, citing past instances of Category 5 hurricanes during below-average seasons.