NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: What you need to know
Yahoo • • nation
Key Points:
- NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with an estimated 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, citing a 55% chance of below-normal activity.
- The forecast is largely influenced by an ongoing El Niño event, which typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing storms in the Pacific, where NOAA predicts above-normal activity with 15 to 22 named storms.
- Despite the below-average forecast, NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparedness, noting that a single major hurricane can still cause significant impact regardless of overall season activity.
- Last year’s Atlantic season had 13 named storms and 5 hurricanes, including 4 major hurricanes, but was notable for no hurricanes making U.S. landfall for the first time in a decade.
- El Niño's effects on hurricane activity may be moderated by slightly warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures along the equator, which can lessen its typical impact on storm formation.