Not just the base: Democrats in recent elections are flipping independent and Republican votes

Key Points:

• Two special election victories in Florida demonstrated that recent Democratic successes rely not only on a motivated base but also on winning over Republicans and independents, with more registered Republicans voting in these races than Democrats.
• In Florida’s state House District 87 and state Senate District 14, Democratic candidates Emily Gregory and Brian Nathan outperformed 2024 presidential margins, indicating crossover support from Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
• Both Gregory and Nathan emphasized affordability as a key issue that resonated across party lines, focusing their outreach on everyday concerns rather than partisan divisions.
• Analysis of multiple recent races shows that Democratic overperformance consistently exceeds shifts in partisan turnout, suggesting defections among registered Republicans and independents who favored Democratic candidates.
• Similar crossover voting trends were observed in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race and other statewide contests, where moderate Republicans and independents supported Democrats due to local issues and dissatisfaction with Republican candidates.