Paxton and Talarico are virtually tied in Senate race

Key Points:

• Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico 43% to 42% in the Texas U.S. Senate race according to a University of Texas poll, marking a significant improvement for Paxton since April when he trailed by 8 points.
• Paxton gained strong Republican support post-primary, with 84% of GOP voters backing him, a 21-point increase from April, while Talarico maintained steady support among independents, moderates, and Hispanic voters.
• The race shows demographic divides: Paxton leads among male voters by 9 points, whereas Talarico leads among women, voters under 65, and those with higher education, also securing a 14-point advantage with Hispanic voters.
• Talarico faces challenges with Black voter support, which remains lower than previous Democratic Senate nominees, but he is actively working to strengthen this coalition ahead of the general election.
• Other statewide races favor Republicans, with Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick holding leads over their Democratic challengers, and GOP candidates maintaining advantages in the attorney general and comptroller contests.