Policy experts: Europe stuck between "rock and a hard place" on launch

Key Points:

• Over the past five years, SpaceX has dramatically increased Falcon 9 rocket launches, now accounting for over three-quarters of all mass launched into orbit globally, largely driven by Starlink satellites and commercial payloads from competitors like Amazon and OneWeb.
• New research analyzing over 6,700 launches since 1960 shows the United States has more than doubled Russia’s cumulative payload to orbit since 1990, with the US share of global payload rising from under 20% in 2012 to over 82% in 2024 due to Falcon 9's high launch cadence and reusability.
• SpaceX’s innovations have driven down US launch costs to an average of $3,225 per kilogram to orbit, significantly lower than competitors such as Europe ($9,897/kg), Russia ($6,682/kg), China ($5,809/kg), Japan ($5,287/kg), and India (~$15,000/kg), with cost reductions attributed to larger rockets, frequent launches, and vehicle reuse.
• Researchers warn that countries relying solely on domestic launch technology, especially Europe, face higher costs and scalability challenges, which could hinder their ability to expand satellite operations and strategic space presence.
• To stay competitive, spacefaring nations must modernize launch capabilities with reusable technology; while the US leads and China advances in this area, Europe’s progress remains slow, exemplified by delays in the European Space Agency’s Themis reusable rocket program.