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Prediction market traders see nearly 75% chance Democrats win Senate
CNBC • • general
Key Points:
- Traders on Kalshi now see a 74% chance of Democrats winning control of the U.S. Senate, marking the highest odds for the party on the platform since it opened in 2024.
- The increased odds follow a New York Times and Siena University poll showing Democrats leading in several key battleground states, enhancing their path to a Senate majority.
- Republican odds for Senate control had dominated earlier in 2024 but have fluctuated, notably narrowing after U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran in February and shifting again in recent months.
- Individual Senate race markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have shown significant gains for Democrats in Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, with Kansas seeing a notable increase for a Democratic candidate in a historically Republican state.
- These market odds are based on trading activity and differ from traditional political polling methods, so they should not be considered direct substitutes for polls.
