Putin's fear is showing. There's good reason for it.

Key Points:

• Moscow’s Victory Day parade this year will be significantly scaled back, with fewer troops, no military hardware on display, and limited foreign attendance due to Vladimir Putin’s fears of a Ukrainian drone attack or sabotage targeting him.
• Putin proposed a ceasefire on May 9 to avoid attacks during the parade, but Ukraine’s Zelensky rejected it after Putin ignored Zelensky’s counteroffer for an earlier truce; a limited three-day truce was later announced but restricted to the parade area.
• Ukraine has gained a tactical edge by deploying more drones with improved range and accuracy, striking deep inside Russia and damaging key infrastructure, which undermines Russia’s economic gains from high energy prices.
• Political shifts in Europe, such as the electoral defeat of Putin’s ally Viktor Orbán, have facilitated increased EU financial and military support for Ukraine, bolstering Zelensky’s position and intensifying Putin’s challenges.
• Russian public support for the war is declining amid economic strain and political uncertainty, with Putin reportedly fearing a coup or assassination, especially after a failed 2023 Wagner Group rebellion and the suspicious death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.