Rating Changes in Iowa Following Tuesday’s Primary

Key Points:

• In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra, despite a late endorsement from Donald Trump, lost the Republican gubernatorial primary to anti-establishment candidate Zach Lahn, prompting the Crystal Ball to move the governor's race rating from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
• The Iowa Senate race and the 2nd Congressional District race were downgraded from Likely Republican to Leans Republican due to increased competitiveness, reflecting broader political shifts and local factors affecting GOP incumbents.
• In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott, a popular Republican, announced his bid for a sixth term, solidifying the GOP's hold on the governor's mansion and moving the race rating from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
• The U.S. Supreme Court's approval of Alabama's 6-1 Republican congressional map signals a likely end to mid-decade redistricting battles for 2026, with Louisiana and Alabama seeing shifts favoring Republicans in certain districts.
• Other notable developments include competitive primary outcomes for Republicans seeking higher office in states like South Dakota and ongoing close races in California's redrawn districts, highlighting a potentially dynamic 2026 election cycle.