Redistricting Makes the House Map a Bit Redder, but Not By Enough to Protect Republicans from a Wave

Key Points:

• Recent legal victories in redistricting cases, including the U.S. Supreme Court’s Callais decision and the Virginia Supreme Court overturning a Democratic gerrymander, have shifted the national redistricting advantage toward Republicans.
• Five House districts have moved toward Republicans due to a GOP-favored redistricting in Tennessee and Virginia reverting to its old map, though Democrats still have competitive targets in Virginia under the current map.
• The new House map shows a greater Republican bias, with the median House seat now about 3-4 points more Republican-leaning compared to the national average, similar to the bias seen in 2018 when Democrats won the House.
• Despite redistricting setbacks, Democrats remain favored to win the House overall, especially if political conditions remain unfavorable for Republicans; however, some GOP gains are expected in states like Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina.
• Legal challenges and potential changes to maps in states like Florida and Missouri keep the redistricting landscape fluid, but current ratings show Republicans with a slight edge in the House playing field heading into the 2026 elections.