‘Regime change’ in Iran? It’s less restrained, more radical.

Key Points:

• Iran’s hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has gained prominence following the assassination of senior leaders, including the former supreme leader, leading to increased militancy and less willingness to compromise in ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel.
• Despite U.S. President Trump’s claim of achieving “regime change” with a supposedly more reasonable Iranian leadership, analysts argue that the opposite has occurred, with hard-line IRGC elements emboldened and continuing aggressive military actions such as missile strikes and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials have seen little progress, with Iran refusing to meet key U.S. demands on nuclear suspension, uranium handover, missile limitations, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, amid internal divisions between civilian leaders and the IRGC.
• The IRGC has fostered a surge in patriotic fervor within Iran, lowering recruitment ages and promoting a hard-line narrative, but analysts note that while the military has increased influence, civilian leadership and institutional continuity remain significant in decision-making.
• Younger IRGC commanders, experienced in regional conflicts and less cautious than predecessors, are driving a more aggressive Iranian military posture, complicating efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully despite ongoing negotiations and internal debates within Iran’s ruling system.