Russia-aligned Rumen Radev set to win Bulgarian election

Key Points:

• Rumen Radev, a Russia-aligned former Bulgarian president, is projected to win nearly 40% of the vote in Sunday's election, more than double the support of any other party, but will need coalition partners to form a government.
• Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria may ally with either pro-EU liberal reformists or with Socialists and nationalists, the latter potentially creating a pro-Moscow governing bloc.
• Radev positions himself as an opponent of Bulgaria’s oligarchic “mafia state” and advocates judicial reforms, while maintaining a pragmatic stance toward Russia and the West, opposing arms shipments to Ukraine and criticizing Bulgaria’s euro adoption.
• Despite accusations of being pro-Russian, Radev denies this, emphasizing his pro-Bulgarian and pro-European positions, and refuses to form coalitions with prominent oligarch-linked politicians like former PM Boyko Borissov.
• The election marks Bulgaria’s eighth in five years amid political instability, with Radev seeking to end the deadlock by forming a stable government and reducing oligarchic influence.