Russia, China may test U.S. if Trump appears weakened

Key Points:

• Brookings Institution fellow Robert Kagan warned that Russia and China might become more aggressive in the next two years if they perceive President Donald Trump as politically weakened following Democratic control of Congress.
• Kagan highlighted that the U.S. military's capacity has been strained by the war with Iran, notably depleting missile-defense interceptors critical for Asian security, with inventories potentially constrained for years.
• The deployment of three U.S. aircraft carriers to the Middle East has reduced naval presence in Asia, possibly giving China greater freedom to act assertively in the region.
• Despite approving an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan, Trump has used a second $14 billion package as a bargaining chip in talks with China, while China continues to claim Taiwan as its territory and reportedly prepares for potential military action by 2027.
• Discussions are underway for a possible trilateral summit between Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin at the upcoming APEC meeting, with Russia reportedly proposing talks to end the Ukraine war without Ukraine's involvement.