Russia doesn’t have much to celebrate on Victory Day, as Ukraine brings the war home to Putin

Key Points:

• Russia has significantly scaled back its Victory Day parade on May 9, omitting heavy military hardware for the first time in 20 years, amid heightened security measures including airport closures and mobile internet suspensions to guard against potential Ukrainian attacks.
• The Kremlin's increased precautions reflect Ukraine's expanded long-range strike capabilities, which have challenged Russia's military displays and exposed vulnerabilities previously unseen in the conflict.
• Ukraine has enhanced its defense capabilities, including drone and missile strikes deep inside Russian territory, and has boosted its defense industrial base by 50-fold since 2022, gaining international recognition and new defense export deals.
• Russia faces growing domestic challenges, including declining recruitment quality, economic difficulties, and rising public dissent, with some political figures openly criticizing President Putin and warning of potential instability.
• While the war remains a stalemate, recent developments suggest Russia may no longer rely on attrition alone, potentially influencing Putin's approach to peace negotiations amid continued strong support for Ukraine from Europe and significant financial aid.