Russia Grinds Deeper Into the Donbas As Ukraine Braces for Key Battles

Key Points:

• Young Ukrainian commanders like Fleshka and Sascha are leading drone-and-infantry units defending the last Ukrainian-held areas in the Donbas, facing a brutal war of attrition against advancing Russian forces.
• Intelligence suggests Russian troops could reach key cities Kramatorsk and Sloviansk by early 2027, potentially completing control of most of the Donbas region next year, though at a high human cost with heavy casualties expected.
• Ukraine's defense heavily relies on logistics and resupply via drones and ground vehicles, with Russian forces targeting these supply lines to weaken Ukrainian positions and potentially force a collapse of the defensive belt.
• Russian tactics involve gradual infiltration and exhaustion warfare, sending small groups repeatedly to wear down Ukrainian defenders, with experts warning that the Donbas is an intermediate objective in Russia's broader strategy to reassert influence over Ukraine.
• Despite setbacks, Russian advances continue slowly but steadily, and Moscow may escalate mobilization and large-scale strikes, especially given Ukraine's shortages in air-defense ammunition, making a swift resolution to the conflict unlikely.