Russia Preparing 100,000 Troops, 5 Scenarios to Expand War Through Northern Ukraine

Key Points:

• President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Russia is preparing five potential scenarios to expand its war through northern Ukraine and plans to mobilize up to 100,000 additional troops, with Ukraine preparing responses for each possible action.
• Zelensky noted that Russia currently lacks the capacity for covert large-scale mobilization and may instead pursue political moves similar to recent actions in Moldova’s Transnistria region.
• Ukraine is planning to increase long-range strikes on Russian territory, describing these as effective "long-range sanctions" to reduce Russia's war capabilities.
• Belarus and Russia have launched joint military exercises focusing on the combat use of nuclear weapons and related operations, which Belarus claims are routine and not targeted at third countries, despite concerns over Belarus’s nuclear delivery capabilities.
• Ukrainian intelligence indicates Russia is attempting to involve Belarus more deeply in the conflict and possibly in future operations against NATO, with ongoing monitoring of contacts between Russian officials and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.