Russia ramps up rhetoric but wants to avoid war with Nato

Key Points:

• Western officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to avoid direct military confrontation with NATO despite hostile rhetoric toward the UK and other allies supporting Ukraine.
• The visit of CIA chief John Radcliffe to Moscow was reportedly to warn Russia against attacking NATO members, but recent Russian threats are seen as consistent with Russia's military doctrine of applying pressure short of full-scale conflict.
• Putin faces growing domestic pressure due to slow progress in Ukraine and the impact of Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia, yet he continues to pursue maximalist war objectives.
• Russia is suspected of conducting hybrid warfare tactics, including cyber-attacks, sabotage, and drone incidents in NATO countries, raising concerns about potential miscalculations sparking military confrontation.
• NATO allies are urged to remain vigilant but calm, with the UK reaffirming its support for Ukraine despite Russian threats, while Western officials note that political pressure on Putin is increasing but not yet threatening his hold on power.