Russia warns of escalation in Ukraine as Putin seeks to shift domestic views of the war

Key Points:

• Facing a stalemate in Ukraine and declining domestic support, President Putin plans to escalate Russian missile strikes on Kyiv to boost approval ratings and portray the war as a Russian victory despite high costs and international backlash.
• Ukraine has gained ground with successful counterstrikes and expanded long-range attacks on Russian infrastructure, challenging Russia’s stalled advances and increasing pressure on Moscow’s economy and morale.
• Russia’s economy is stagnating amid rising taxes, borrowing, and war costs, with signs that volunteer recruitment is faltering, prompting concerns that the Kremlin may resort to forced mobilization and stricter controls on freedoms.
• Recent Russian missile attacks on Kyiv, including use of new hypersonic missiles, and threats against Ukraine’s European allies signal Moscow’s intent to intensify the conflict and deter Western support, raising fears of broader escalation.
• Growing domestic discontent in Russia is evident as social media influencers criticize government policies, internet restrictions disrupt daily life, and Putin’s credibility and approval ratings show signs of erosion despite state-controlled polling efforts.