Russian “Missile Drought” Bites As Putin Pulls Back To Defend Moscow

Key Points:

• Russian air defense units, particularly in Sevastopol, are experiencing a severe shortage of missiles for their Tor and Pantsir systems, limiting their ability to counter Ukrainian drone attacks effectively.
• Despite Russia's large and sophisticated mobile surface-to-air missile arsenal, the high cost of missiles compared to inexpensive Ukrainian drones has led to rapid depletion of missile stocks, with some units resorting to using outdated or improvised munitions.
• Ukrainian drone strikes on missile production facilities have exacerbated the shortage, creating a feedback loop where fewer missiles lead to more successful drone attacks and further depletion of missile supplies.
• To protect critical areas like Moscow, Russia is concentrating its remaining fully armed air defense units in the capital, deploying Pantsir systems on towers, though this has led to collateral damage in residential and industrial areas due to missile misses.
• The missile shortage is not unique to Russia; the US and Ukraine have faced similar challenges, with Ukraine innovating by using low-cost interceptor drones and repurposed missiles, while Russia struggles to scale up production and counter the persistent drone threat.